In his 2006 book The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More, author Chris Anderson defined the 98 Percent Rule: 98 percent of the inventory available online will sell at least one copy. Critics were skeptical at the time and new research further undermines the theory’s credibility.
As reported in this December 22, 2008 timesonline story, Will Page and Andrew Bud’s analysis of online music sales show that 77% of available tracks – 10 million of 13 million – didn’t sell a single copy. The figures are even worse for online sale of complete albums: 85% didn’t sell at all.
Anderson graciously said he’s waiting for Page and Bud to release their data before passing judgment, but the Long Tail theory is underachieving at best. Actual sales seems to conform to a model proposed by an American economist in 1956!
Maybe Anderson’s theory is legit but his choice of the online music sales as his model is misplaced; I’d love to see a similar analysis of book sales on Amazon to compare and contrast. I think we need a few more years of data to declare it a bust, but the Long Tail concept is a little less compelling than it was three years ago.